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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd